On the 19th of June 2021, Bristol led Harlequins 28-0 in the semi-final at Ashton Gate and Pat Lam’s side looked destined to end their stellar season with a first appearance in the Gallagher Premiership final.
However, over the next couple of hours, the Bears faithful had their dreams dashed as Quins roared back to complete an improbable win, running out 43-36 winners after extra-time.
Despite the disappointment of losing in the manner that they did, owner Stephen Landsdown put his full faith in Pat Lam by handing the former Samoan international a seven-year contract.
The contract raised eyebrows at the time due to its length, however, there was little doubt that Lam deserved reward, having coached Bristol to promotion from the championship, winning the European Challenge Cup in 2020 and guiding the Bears to a top of the table finish during the regular season in 2020/21.
However, after their brilliant season in 2020/21, the next two seasons have been underwhelming.
The Bears went from finishing first in the 2020/21 campaign to ending the 2021/22 regular season in 10th place.
Whilst many thought that might be a blip, the reality has been anything but and the 2022/23 season has seen the side finish 9th and this final position was in an 11-team league.
Therefore, it is fair to question what is behind the drop off in form which has seen a side finish first one year to residing near the bottom of the table in the two following seasons.
The basic statistics make pretty grim reading.
In 2020/21 the Bears won 17 games out of a possible 22, in the next two seasons they have won 16 games combined.
Another huge difference is in their points for and against.
In 2020/21 the Bears points differential was +182, scoring 75 tries and conceding 42.
In 2021/22, the Bears points differential was -145, and whilst their attack remained potent, scoring 73 tries only two fewer than the previous season, they conceded more than double, letting in 98.
However, there was improvement in 2022/23, albeit there were two fewer games, the points differential improved sitting at -21 and the attack was strong scoring 72 tries whilst the defence conceded 65.
Embed from Getty Images(It has been a difficult period for Pat Lam (pictured above) )
The natural response is to ponder what are the reasons behind such a drop off in performance.
Discipline has been cited as a key factor in Bristol losing games, but across the last three seasons the Bears have been by no means the worst offenders.
In 2020/21 the Bears ranked fifth in the table for penalties conceded, giving away 244.
In 2021/22 they were penalised 279 times which ranked them 8th against other Premiership sides.
In 2022/23 the Bears returned to 5th in this table, having been whistled against a total of 243 times, and whilst that is similar 2020/21 it must again be noted that less games were played.
Furthermore, in the past three seasons the Bears have consistently been near the top of the metres gained charts.
In 2020/21, they were first, in 2021/22 they were second and in 2022/23 they were second again, illustrating that gaining ground has not appeared to be an issue for Pat Lam’s side.
Although, despite their ability to advance the ball it is their lack of cutting edge which has cost them.
In 2020/21, the Bears were third in the table for points scored. In comparison, the following two seasons they were ranked 9th out of 13 in 2021/22 and then 9th out of 11 in 2022/23.
For a club with the talent that Bristol Bears have it is an illustration of the struggles that they have had since they lost that semi-final in June 2021.
There are of course factors which have influenced these statistics.
Injuries to key players have blighted the Bears over the last couple of seasons, with stars such as Semi Radradra, Harry Randall, Charles Piutau and Steven Luatua to name but a few have all had sustained periods on the side lines.
In addition, Ben Earl and Max Malins were significant contributors to the Bears success and were valuable players to have on loan from Saracens, who were forced to spend the 20/21 season in Championship exile having been convicted of financial misgivings.
For context, in that season Malins excelled, scoring 9 tries whilst on loan, the most of any Bears player and his colleague Ben Earl also had a huge impact scoring five tries from the back row.
Regardless of injury and talent moving on, the Bears have still seen a poor return on the investment they have made in their side.
Big names such as Ellis Genge, AJ Macginty and Gabriel Ibitoye have come through the door at Ashton Gate, but two seasons outside the Champions Cup positions is a dismal return for the quality that the Bears have had at their disposal.
Another criticism that has been levelled at the Bears is their failure to win close games.
Across the last two seasons the Bears have recorded nine losing bonus points. Whilst in some scenarios that may be regarded as a positive outcome, it could be argued that is also nine games gone begging and that extends to ten when you consider the draw against Leicester where Macginty missed a relatively simple penalty at the death, which would have given the Bears another win.
Tight games are unsurprisingly won by fine margins and a key area is the turnover battle.
Crucially, in the turnovers won charts in the 2022/23 season no Bears players feature in the top 10 in this metric.
Grinding out results has been a challenge for Bristol and if you are struggling to disrupt your opposition’s ball, it can make a big difference in close games which is maybe a telling factor in the Bears’ struggles.
Another statistic which makes interesting reading is the results from winning and losing positions.
When the Bears finished 1st in 2020/21, Bristol led at half time 12 times and only failed to win once, a game which they drew. Moreover, when trailing at the break, they came back to win an impressive three times out of five.
Since then, unsurprisingly the Bears record has not been as good. In 2021/22 the Bears lost more than they won when in front at half-time losing 5/9 times. Another damning indictment was that the Bears trailed 11 times and could only reverse their fortunes on two occasions.
In 2022/23 when in front at the break the Bears went onto win eight out of 10 times but could only reverse a half-time deficit on one occasion out of 11 and drawing against Leicester on the other.
https://rugby.statbunker.com/competitions/HalfTimeTableLose?comp_id=702
(Must be noted one of their wins came against Wasps and was not counted in the official table.)
Those figures demonstrate that the Bears are a far cry from their 2020/21 selves and have languished at the wrong end of the table.
Malins will return to Ashton Gate for the 2023/24 season which will be a boost given he led the try scorer charts last season with 16 and has continued his excellent form in 2022/23 having again reached double figures for tries scored.
There is also a lot of quality leaving the Bears.
Superstars Piutau and Radradra will join Luke Morahan as players to depart Ashton Gate. Furthermore, with Ioan Lloyd, Andy Uren, Toby Fricker and Henry Purdy also leaving, the future success of Bristol looks anything but certain.
Piutau will be a huge miss for the Bears, as even when the Bears have struggled, he has remained a notable threat.
In 2022/23, the former All-Black was second in the metres gained chart, going for a total of 1188 metres and he was also fifth in the charts for defenders beaten, managing to go past 54 players throughout the season.
Embed from Getty Images(Above: Charles Piutau in action against Gloucester in his last game for the club)
In 2021/22 injuries played a factor in a lower performance from the full-back but again when Bristol was strong the season prior, so was Piutau, sitting third for metres gained.
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There is no doubt his absence will leave a void at Ashton Gate but how Bristol replace their stars and work to a better collective performance will make interesting viewing as Pat Lam looks to right a ship that has seemingly stumbled off course in the last couple of seasons.
Archie Connolly Sport 